A recent study published on Monday suggests that episodes of torrential rainfall, capable of causing catastrophic floods, are more frequent and intense due to global warming than predicted by climate models. The research challenges existing climate predictions, asserting that extreme precipitation events could be more severe than previously anticipated.
Scientists typically employ climate models to forecast the consequences of global warming, but this study, conducted by Anders Levermann from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), suggests that these models underestimate the rise in extreme precipitation.
Levermann states in a press release, “The consequences could be much worse than we thought. Extreme precipitation will be stronger and more frequent. Society needs to prepare for this.”
The study indicates that the most significant increases will occur in tropical regions and high latitudes, such as Southeast Asia and northern Canada. This is primarily attributed to the fact that warm air can hold more water vapor.
Published in the Journal of Climate just days before COP28, the annual international climate conference under UN auspices, the warning emphasizes the urgency of addressing climate issues. Researchers compared predictions from various climate models with historically observed changes, utilizing techniques to differentiate changes related to human-induced greenhouse gas emissions from those that are not.
“Our study confirms that the intensity and frequency of torrential rainfall increase exponentially with each global warming increment,” highlights Max Kotz, the lead author of the study. The research concludes that temperature rise is the primary driver of these changes, outweighing factors such as wind.
Anders Levermann notes both optimistic and concerning aspects: “The good news is that it makes predicting the future of extreme precipitation easier. The bad news is that it will worsen if we continue to drive global warming through greenhouse gas emissions.”