For the past two decades, the fight against jihadist groups has been the main focus. However, international tensions and the war in Ukraine have recently gained prominence. In the midst of these two evils, the major powers are trying to find a balance.
The UN has spent a week discussing its counter-terrorism strategy and has adopted a document setting out its priorities for the coming years. While there is consensus on the fight against the Islamic State (IS) and Al Qaeda, geopolitical struggles are moving the spotlight.
The war in Ukraine has forced the powers to realize that they were not prepared for major confrontations in terms of logistics and military production. This has led to a recalibration of priorities. Some analysts point out that the United States is no longer showing as much interest in counterterrorism, and in the Sahel, the French withdrawal has not been replaced by other means.
For a long time, intelligence resources were focused on counterterrorism, but now there is a growing interest in working on issues related to Russia. After the attacks of September 11, 2001, Western countries invested heavily in counterterrorism without curbing the proliferation of jihadist groups around the world.
The shift in focus has occurred especially on the twentieth anniversary of 9/11, when the counterterrorism fight was perceived to be losing momentum. Although jihadist groups continue to strengthen in different regions, especially in the Levant, Yemen, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Africa, the international community seems to lack an effective response.
The threat in Africa has been underestimated, with jihadist groups spreading across different countries. The fight against terrorism is also influenced by power struggles, as seen with the presence of the Russian paramilitary company Wagner in Mali.
After investing billions of dollars and killing numerous jihadist leaders, the fight against terrorism seems to have reached a stalemate. The need arises to find alternative solutions and explore the possibility of limited negotiations to address certain aspects of the conflict. Meanwhile, terrorist groups are taking advantage of cracks in the world order and adapting to crises and disputes to expand their activities.