A senior US Army Air Forces commander has warned his subordinates that there is a possibility that China could declare war against the United States within two years. Gen. Michael Minihan, head of Air Mobility Command, has sent a circular to his soldiers warning that he believes they will have to fight in 2025, even though he hopes he is wrong. His forecast is based on the current political context in China and Taiwan, specifically Xi Jinping’s term extension and the impending democratic elections in Taiwan, which Beijing considers within its sovereignty.
According to Minihan, Xi Jinping’s securing a third term and forming his war council in October 2022, coupled with the presidential election in Taiwan in 2024 and the US presidential election in the same year, will allow Xi to have a distracted America and justification for action in Taiwan. The general recommends to his soldiers that they prepare for a war situation, settle their personal affairs, and intensify their training.
Air Mobility Command confirmed the veracity of the circular, although a Pentagon spokesman responded that these comments do not represent the department’s view on China. Defense Department spokesman Patrick Ryder expanded on his view, saying that China is an ongoing challenge for the Defense Department and that they are focused on working with allies and partners to preserve a free and open region.
General Minihan’s circular comes at a time of rising tensions between the United States and China, exacerbated by Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan over the summer and China’s response with the largest military exercises in its history in the vicinity of the island. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has warned of highly provocative behavior by China over Taiwan, although he seriously doubts that it means an imminent invasion.
Minihan’s prognosis has generated concern in the Pentagon, although some experts view it with skepticism. China has a huge economy but is still far behind the United States in military and technological capability.